The salamehockey.com site administrators, over the course the next few weeks, will be taking a look at each team’s roster and analyzing the likely scenarios for keepers and re-signs for the upcoming 2011-2012 season.
TEAM: ASSMAN
GM: ROB CAMPOPIANO
FORWARDS – KEEPERS
1. Sidney Crosby, Penguins – Crosby shook off any doubt that he wasn’t the very top of the elite in the game in early 2010. His 26 game point streak helped remain atop the league scoring standings for quite some time, despite having suffered a major concussion on New Year’s Day and another the following game following hits from Dave Steckel and Victor Hedman. Crosby is a perennial 110-130 pt threat, he has eclipsed 120 before and will again, and assuming he returns to full health following a scary concussion spell in the 2011 half of the season, should be able to rebound very well given his drive and his level of competiveness.
2. Ilya Kovalchuk, Devils – the $100 million dollar man really delivered underwhelming results in 2010, especially to start the season, as New Jersey’s coaching change and playing philosophy only regained form under the guise of Jacques Lemaire mid-season. With that in mind, Kovalchuk is a career PPG player, a five-time 80 pt scorer and excellent all-around forward. Given the right situation, he has the talent to eclipse 90 pts, but under the assumption of a defensive-minded system (which remains to be seen to this point), expect more of an 80+ performance.
3. Jason Spezza, Senators – a true band aid boy, Spezza has only played one full 82 game season in his eight year career. And while has demonstrated in the past that 90 pts is not in the realm of impossible, as time goes on Spezza seems to be fitting the mold of the 70 game, 65-70 pt player rather than the dominant franchise center he once was. If he can keep himself on the ice and off the shelf for a full-year, he can surprise with 80 pts or more, as his 532 career pts in 526 games demonstrates.
4. Marian Gaborik, Rangers – after a seemingly endless parade of injuries, Gaborik has strung together Spezza-esque seasons (go figure) and remains a top line threat when he is healthy. Only 29, there may very well be a lot of hockey in him, and given the right centerman (ahem, Brad Richards perhaps?), Gaborik may eclipse 80 pts once again over 70+ games.
5. Evander Kane, Jets? – Evander Kane became a fan favorite after having clocked perennial pest Matt Cooke in 2010, and despite his ability to knock out players, Kane has taken great strides in developing his game as a power forward, scoring 43 pts in his sophomore year. The size and talent cannot be denied and Kane will likely crack 50 or more pts in the coming year, with a ceiling probably up in the 70s when he gets into his prime.
6. Dustin Brown, Kings – for a little while, it looked like Dustin Brown would finally deliver that 70 pt season people thought he could deliver. Not so much – the physical captain of the burgeoning Kings delivered another decent 57 pt finish, despite showing some potential alongside Kopitar on the top line. Inconsistencies brought Dustin back to earth, and with it, the Kings offensive numbers also suffered, with the team hitting a big dry spell near the end of the season. Expect more of the same, 50 to 60 pts, unless Brown can hit another level with his top linemate and any potential forward that may enter the mix from free agency.
7. Michael Grabner, Islanders – prior to the all-star break, Grabner looked to be dwindling in mediocrity after being shipped from Vancouver to Florida and then being picked off waivers by the Islanders. At some point in January, Grabner decided he’d score 30 goals in about 50 games, and the rest is history. Now firmly entrenched as part of the Long Island core of young forwards, expect Grabner to try to build on his second half success and likely score 30 goals with 15-20 assists, with upside for more as he grows stronger.
FORWARDS – RESIGNS
8. Devin Setoguchi, Sharks – Devin showed signs of a return to his 65 pt form from 2008-2009, but only finished the year with 41 pts as the Sharks relied on other top six forwards for offense over the course of the second half. His role will continue to be among the top six, and a slight improvement might be expected in the coming year.
9. Teddy Purcell, Lightning – Teddy never really became what the Kings drafted him for and was dealt at the deadline in 2010 despite never being given a decent chance. Under the guidance of Guy Boucher, Purcell found his touch and became an agitating and physical component of the Tampa top nine, playing the majority of his time in 2011 with Vincent Lecavalier, or alongside Dominic Moore. Purcell followed up his 51 pt effort in 2011 with a very strong playoff, instilling great faith that the big winger could contribute in a top six role as he enters his prime.
10. RJ Umberger, Blue Jackets – Umberger continues to produce at a 55 pt level despite the Blue Jackets’ dire need to improve on the back end and in goal to ever be considered a playoff threat. Having not been paired up with Rick Nash for very much in 2011, he led the 2nd line for the majority of his ice time and never quits, important for a player of his size. Expect more of the same unless a major shakeup comes about in Columbus’ lineup.
11. Max Pacioretty, Canadiens – Pacioretty was rushed to the NHL in his early years and made the right decision to return to Hamilton to further his development. The dividends are now starting to come in for the Habs, and everyone in the Canadiens management team hopes MaxPac can regain his form after a scary injury suffered at the hands of Zdeno Chara.
12. Martin Erat, Predators – Erat has consistenty put up 50 or more pts for six straight seasons, and despite being inconsistent, has a knack for picking up his production at some point in the season. While Nashville remains without a big name offensive threat, Erat is still considered one of their better top six options.
13. Ryan Malone, Lightning – in three years with the Lightning, Malone has never topped 47 pts or 70 games, and is widely considered pretty injury-prone despite his talent as a physical top six forward. He may very well eclipse his prior highs if he maintains good consistency and health on one of the top 2 lines, but expect more of the same from the big winger.
14. Andrei Kostitsyn, Canadiens – some nights Kostitsyn looks like the player the Canadiens drafted 10th overall in 2003, ahead of the likes of Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown, Zach Parise, Ryan Getzlaf, Brent Burns, Ryan Kesler, Mike Richards, Corey Perry, Loui Eriksson and Shea Weber. No actually that’s not true. But some nights he looks okay. Too bad the other 79 games in the season he disappears, and has yet to put up more than 53 pts in a single season. The hope may still be there for some, and if he is re-signed, he may well deliver on his “potential”, but who knows anymore. That entire draft class looks fantastic except for some major blips, Andrei being a very obvious one.
DEFENSE – KEEPERS
1. Drew Doughty, Kings – the former 2nd overall pick and franchise defenseman regressed after a breakthrough sophomore season of 59 pts, but still managed to put up 40 pts while leading the Kings into the playoffs once again. Doughty is still only 21, but has shown maturity beyond his years and remains one of the most coveted defensemen in the league. There is no doubt he will continue to lead the Kings powerplay, and soak up the majority of the minutes on a pretty strong blue line. Expect a rebound effort of 50+ pts, and a ceiling past his career-high 59 when he enters his mid-20’s.
2. Alex Pietrangelo, Blues – at 21, Pietrangelo was able to make his NHL squad with ease and play in his first full NHL season after skipping the AHL seasoning that most young defensemen are subjected to. On the power play from the get go, he impressed the team brass so much that Erik Johnson, former 1st overall pick, became tradeable and Pietrangelo took the reigns and never looked back. Now likely paired with Shattenkirk on the Blues top PP, he will look to improve on his 43 pt rookie season that was achieved rather quietly among the other great rookies. Pietrangelo has great upside as a very good puck mover and is responsible in his own end as well. Expect 40-50 pts in the coming few years with ample room for more as he gains experience.
3. PK Subban, Canadiens – Subban, a highly-touted prospect for the Canadiens, possesses superior offensive skill and skating capabilities, and is the future of the Canadiens puck moving and top pairing defensemen. His 38 pts in 77 games were sometimes overshadowed by rookie growing pains in his defensive game, but that will improve over time. Subban is above all else very strong and very gifted with the puck, and will continue to be well into his prime. At 22, he can easily score 40-50 pts in the coming season and has one the highest upsides among young NHL defensemen.
DEFENSE – RESIGNS
4. Brent Seabrook, Blackhawks – Seabrook’s ice time skyrocketed in 2011, and while the impact was negative on Duncan Keith, Seabrook’s numbers took off, with the former 1st round pick scoring 48 pts in 82 games. He remains a top-pairing option and more of the same can be expected from the big blueliner who is now in his prime.
5. Andrej Meszaros, Flyers – While Meszaros’ time with the Lightning produced little on the offensive side, it should be noted that prior to his stint in Tbay, the former Senator blueliner scored 35 or better in three straight seasons. He remains a good top 4 option for the Flyers going forward and can be relied upon for production especially in the event that injuries take their toll on the blueline.
6. Fedor Tyutin, Blue Jackets – Tyutin continues to be decent top 4 defenseman with the Blue Jackets. His value comes from being one of the sole puck movers on the blue line and going forward, more of the same can be expected from the Russian.
GOALTENDER – KEEPER
1. Marc-Andre Fleury, Penguins – Fleury, now in the prime of his career, is definitely the #1 goalie for the Penguins and will remain so for the forseeable future. While his stats don’t blow his competition out of the water, he has consistently strung together 35-40 wins and 3-5 shutouts per season for more than five years now. Expect more of the same.
GOALTENDERS – RESIGNS
2. Robin Lehner, Senators – at 19, the young Swedish goaltender was thrust into Ottawa’s starting net numerous times this year due to injuries to Pascal Leclaire and Mike Brodeur. His play for Sweden in the World Juniors was considered average, Robin spent most of February with the Senators and went 0-4 in five appearances, but was finally sent down to Binghamton in time for their playoff push. Robin took over and went on a tear for the playoff push, helping the Baby Sens win the Calder Cup and winning the AHL Playoff MVP Award. Listed at 6’4 and 220 pounds, Lehner has the size and skills needed to evolve into a legitimate NHL star goaltender.
3. Jack Campbell, Stars – Dallas’ next big thing is slowly developing into what he was drafted for at 11th overall in the 2010 entry draft. On the big stage (2010 and 2011 WJC and 2011 OHL playoffs), Campbell elevated his game and really shone. Lost amidst the madness of his first year in the OHL, Campbell learned valuable lessons by working with a sports psychologist and by personally working with Stars goalie coach Mike Valley. Make no mistake about Campbell’s skills – they are worthy of labeling him a potentially elite NHL starter, but don’t expect him to turn pro this summer.
next up: HOT LIQUID