The salamehockey.com site administrators, over the course the next few weeks, will be taking a look at each team’s roster and analyzing the likely scenarios for keepers and re-signs for the upcoming 2011-2012 season.
TEAM: OLD NO. 7
GM: ACHILLE MARRA
FORWARDS
KEEPERS
1. Nicklas Backstrom, Capitals – The dynamic offensive powerhouse from Sweden is not only supremely talented, but plays with quite possibly the most prolific scorer in the NHL today, Alexander Ovechkin. Having never produced less than 69 pts since his rookie season, Backstrom’s 65 pts in 77 games left much to be desired in 2011. However, the Capitals adopted a more responsible defensive-minded game that stifled all production across the board. Even Ovechkin had a bad year. Add to that a broken finger endured throughout the final 15 games of the season as well as the remainder of the playoffs, Nick proved he was brave enough to bear the injury despite missing 5 games and continued onwards. It remains difficult to tell if the Capitals system will remain as is in 2011-2012, but a rebound is very likely, and the expectation from Backstrom is a return to the 85-95 pt range that he is capable of.
2. Thomas Vanek, Sabres – After quite possibly one of the most successful sophomore seasons in recent history (his 84 pt effort in 2007), Vanek would go on to subpar seasons either due to enhanced defensive coverage, injury or perhaps being under the pressure of his heavy contract. Vanek rebounded nevertheless to a strong 73 pt showing in 2011, and only really took off, oddly enough, once Derek Roy had been put on the shelf. While frustratingly streaky, Vanek is capable of putting up 70+ pts year in and year out, and is no longer a goal-heavy threat as he was once pegged in prior years. Assuming he ditches the coasting from time to time for good, he is capable of reaching 80 pts once more, especially with new management’s vow to improve the lineup surrounding him.
3. Patrick Marleau, Sharks – I covered Marleau in the Mr. Motorboat analysis and it went like this: A tale of two seasons. Marleau made an early transition to the Magnum hockey club early on in the season, and as the Sharks struggled to score, Marleau would prove no different, as in his first 50 games of the 2010-2011 season, Pat only scored 36 pts, a terrible 59 pt pace. Frustrated with his production, Magnum sold off what looked like a write-off year for Marleau to Mr. Motorboat (who would then ship him to Old No. 7 during the spring). What followed was then inexplicable: 37 pts in 32 games, a 95 pt pace, and better yet, the Sharks would go on a tear that not many had predicted, in order to win the Pacific Division. When it was all said and done, Marleau delivered another good year of production. He is a good bet for 70+ pts with upside in the 80’s given the right amount of icetime.
4. Matt Duchene, Avalanche – At the age of 20, Duchene has not only silenced everyone that thought he was not yet ready for the NHL, but he has proven to be an excellent forward with good Hockey IQ that does not quit. His performance in 2011 was an improvement over 2010’s totals, going from 55 to 67 pts in nearly full seasons, and Duchene’s role remains highly prominent among the Avalanche forwards. Sharing the top center spotlight with Paul Stastny, he will relied upon heavily after the departure of Chris Stewart via trade, and will likely surpass the 70 pt mark in 2011-2012.
5. Jamie Benn, Stars – Benn, alongside Mike Ribeiro and Brenden Morrow, truly impressed the Dallas Stars brass in 2010-2011, so much so, that James Neal effectively became obsolete and was later traded to shore up the Dallas blueline. Putting Benn back into his natural center position, the young forward’s production took off like a rocket. Between October and January, Benn produced at a moderate but healthy 50 pt pace. Following the Neal deal, Benn exploded for 31 pts in 29 games, a dominant pace that almost helped Dallas reach the postseason. Depending on the outcome of the Brad Richards dilemma, Benn may potentially be thrust into an even bigger role in the coming year. Being conservative, he is capable of 60-70 pts in the coming year, however he has the talent, size and the right situation to do a lot more, very soon.
6. Ryane Clowe, Sharks – after being dogged by injury after injury in the earlier part of his career, Clowe has finally been able to string together 3 solid seasons above 70 games played. With that improvement in durability came an improvement in production as well. As Thornton, Heatley and Marleau all faltered throughout several dry spells in 2010-2011, Clowe delivered a career-best 62 pts in 75 games. The top six winger is well-poised to continue this performance, and his size and strength will likely help continue to provide the depth scoring punch the Sharks need. Now in his prime, he can continue to post above 60 pts per season, assuming he continues his current healthy trend.
7. Mikhail Grabovski, Maple Leafs – the former Hab and Moscow Dynamo, Grabovski broke out when put into a top six role in Toronto in 2011, along with the likes of Nikolai Kulemin and Clarke MacArthur. While he appeared destined to a great total above 65 pts earlier in the season, consistency issues and several slumps cooled off the hot start and Grabovski scored 58 pts in 81 games. Despite this, until further notice, Toronto does not have a better line to turn to, and the young Belarussian will likely continue to produce anywhere from 55-65 pts in the coming year.
RESIGNS
8. Saku Koivu, Ducks – the tenacious Saku went on to a modest 45 pts in 75 games in 2011, playing on a depth line with Jason Blake and Teemu Selanne. Despite the latter’s excellent season, Koivu got off to a slow start only to score roughly half of his pts in the remaining 30 games of the season. While durability and age remain a factor, he is still a top six option to consider and is likely to continue producing at a similar level.
9. Brad Boyes, Sabres – Boyes showed some improvement over dismal last couple of years where his pt totals did not exceed 45, and got the change in scenery he so direly needed as well, moving onto a Sabres team with an increasingly strong supporting cast. While Boyes did not deliver a remarkable performance with the Sabres, scoring at a roughly 50 pt pace (as was customary throughout the year with the Blues), his linemates for the majority of the time, Stafford and Ennis, will likely continue to improve. Having scored 60 pts earlier in his career, the talent is definitely there, but Boyes has not delivered since, and still needs to work harder to make it come together again. One can expect a slight rebound is in order once Boyes develops more chemistry in Buffalo.
10. Clarke MacArthur, Maple Leafs – MacArthur broke out for 62 pts in 2011, playing on the highly successful Kulemin-Grabovski line. And while his prior performances did not indicate he had the knack for a top six role, Clarke broke through regardless and made an impact for the struggling Leafs, despite slowing down as the year went on. More of the same can be expected, however there’s no telling where MacArthur may end up in the lineup if a bigger piece is brought in to shore up the number one center issue in Toronto.
DEFENSE
KEEPERS
1. Dan Boyle, Sharks – Boyle is a six-time 50+ pt producer on the blueline, and at 34, has not given any indication of slowing down as the primary producer for the Sharks PP on the back end. As the Sharks continue to rely on him to be the premier puck mover on their team (and one of the best in the NHL for that matter), he will continue to produce anywhere from 50-60 pts a season.
2. Duncan Keith, Blackhawks – Having nearly eclipsed 70 pts in 2010, Keith helped lead the Hawks to the Stanley Cup and everything was rosy. Except a number of important depth pieces had to be moved, and that left Keith with a big task to fill: play more than any other NHL defenseman would have to, nearly 27 mins night in, night out. Its likely that the increased dependency on Keith led to the reduction in his production, along with the 20% reduction in shots taken as well. As the Hawks are cap-strapped and cannot afford more depth on the blueline, more of the same can be expected, but less reliance on NHL minute king would likely lead to an improvement in the 50+ range.
3. Marek Zidlicky, Wild – Marek Zidlicky is about as consistent as they come. 2008: 43 pts. 2009: 42 pts. 2010: 43 pts. 2011: well, 24 in 46, but pro-rated, that’s 43 pts. Given Zidlicky’s uncharacteristic injury, its safe to say a return to action will give the 34 year old defenseman plenty of opportunity to put up about anywhere from 42 to 43 pts in 2011-2012. Mark it.
RESIGNS
4. Paul Martin, Penguins – While Martin certainly offered the Penguins good depth on the back-end, his performance was less than exceptional, having scored only 24 pts in 77 games, far diminished from the 37 pt peak he had with the Devils back in 2006. That being said, the departure of Alex Goligoski leaves Martin to be the likely candidate to take over the 2nd PP QB duties, and with it, a better opportunity to put up points while the return of Crosby and Malkin will likely lift anyone’s production in Pittsburgh as well.
5. Dan Girardi, Rangers – Girardi evolved into a top-pairing d-man in 2011, paired with Marc Staal and providing excellent defensive coverage for the RANGERS. That’s right Roger… he plays with the RANGERS. Assuming he continues in this role despite the likely return of Del Zotto to the blue line in the coming year, Girardi is capable of putting similar pts in 2011-2012.
GOALTENDERS
KEEPER
1. Cam Ward, Hurricanes – After an injury-plagued 2010 season, Ward rebounded with a sound and heavy workload (74 games) and delivered a quality season for the Hurricanes. He is now in his prime, and with the Hurricanes developing an interesting core of young talent, Ward has the capability to deliver nearly 40 wins, 4-5 shutouts in the coming years as an undisputed number one starter.
RESIGNS
2. Ray Emery, Ducks – Emery fell off the face of the planet when he discovered Siberia. Despite his venture into the abyss of Russia, he returned to play very well for the Ducks in his return. Given the fact that Jonas Hiller remains number one on the Ducks’ depth chart, Emery’s value will be tied to whomever he may sign with, assuming he goes elsewhere.
3. Cory Schneider, Canucks – the young Schneider impressed the Vancouver brass with a strong showing backing up Luongo in 2010-2011. He has the talent and pedigree to become an NHL starter with above average stats, and may inspire an early departure from the Canucks team that drafted him in the event that another team with needs comes calling with an offer Vancouver cannot refuse.