The salamehockey.com site administrators, over the course the next few weeks, will be taking a look at each team’s roster and analyzing the likely scenarios for keepers and re-signs for the upcoming 2011-2012 season.
TEAM: GOODFELLAS
GM: CHRIS PALERMO
FORWARDS
KEEPERS
1. Evgeni Malkin, Penguins – Gino’s 2011 season was shortended much like in 2010, where the talented center produced on a point-per-game level but could not stay healthy for the entire year. His 37 pts in 43 games this year indicate that the drive to produce is still there, but a healthy season will be what the doctor orders for Malkin to return to his 100 pt ways. He is undoubtedly still one of the “big three” in talent and has proven he can be an NHL scoring leader. Assuming Malkin has put all his injury concerns behind him, and that he is fit to start training camp in September 2011 after suffering a torn right ACL and MCL, he can return to produce anwhere from 90-110 pts over an 80 game season.
2. Zach Parise, Devils – Much like Malkin, Parise sat out the majority of the year with the Devils due to a torn meniscus, but is slated to return for the 2011-2012 healthy. His past cannot be denied, he is an elite forward whose talent and push for excellence often have him finish high in the scoring race, with two seasons over 80 pts already under his belt at age 26. It remains to be seen if Parise will remain a Devil as he is currently an RFA, but the smart bet is on yes. That being said, depending on the coaching change and system to follow, Parise, the team player he is, can put up anywhere from 80 to 90 pts, if not more, depending on how much offensive freedom he is given.
3. Jeff Skinner, Hurricanes – at the age of 18, the 7th overall pick in the 2010 entry draft made waves as a rooke for the Carolina Hurricanes. His goal-scoring ability was undisputable, and if not for his size, Skinner would have likely been in the top 3 of pre-draft rankings, however the Canes are now smiling, as no player from the 2010 draft has had a better year. 63 pts in 82 games, and without having been dependent on another player to be setting him up (he rotated in and out lines with Jokinen, Ruutu, Staal, Larose all year long, producing at ever situation), Skinner has the talent to hit 80 pts in his prime, if not more. In the coming year, he will no longer be a novelty for opposing defensemen to deal with, but he remains a threat for 60-70 pts.
4. David Krejci, Bruins – the Czech center essentially inherited the top center position after Marc Savard’s brief return led to another spell of concussion syndrome. Despite this, Krejci had also demonstrated he was a hard enough worker with enough talent to lead a line with Nathan Horton and Milan Lucic (where he spent 80% of his ice time all year), who seemed to all step into another gear in 2011. Having achieved 62 pts in 75 games, Krejci appeared to have stepped back into his scoring touch from 2009, where he eclipsed 70 pts, and given the success of his line for the Bruins attack, is a good bet to put up 65-75 pts over a full season in the coming year.
5. Alex Tanguay, Flames – after an awful 2010 with the Lightning, Tanguay moved back to the Calgary team he had his best season with (81 pts in 2007) and rekindled the magic alongside Jarome Iginla for a resurgent 69 pts in 79 games. The 31 year old is back to his old ways and hopefully can continue his production leading into the next year, given there is continued risk of a Calgary blow-up and rebuild which may disband the winger from his favorite line mate. Having surpassed 70 pts four times in his career, he has the talent to repeat the feat, but is also a consistency risk, given he has also had five seasons well below that mark. If the situation stays the same, 60+ pts is definitely possible in the coming year.
6. Nathan Horton, Bruins – part of the Lucic-Krejci-Horton line that came together to produce in 2011, Horton’s move to Boston looked like a move of brilliance at first glance. His first 20 games as a Bruin, Horton scored at a 78 pt pace, but when then drop off and only finish with 53 pts in 80 games. Horton has been known for his inconsistency for quite some time, however as the season went on, his production was much less in spurts and much more consistent given the chemistry he developed with Krejci. He remains a top line talent with less than optimal effort, but given the situation he is in, Horton, whose career high of 62 pts has not been hit since 2008, is still capable of notching 60+ pts once again in the coming year.
7. Michael Frolik, Blackhawks – the former 10th overall pick with the Florida Panthers in 2006, Frolik was once regarded as a potential 80 pt scorer with flair and decent size. The Panthers effectively gave up on this fact late in the 2011 season, but the Hawks surely hope they scooped up a bargain in the young Czech. He has yet to eclipse 50 pts in his short career, but also hasn’t had the right opportunity up until now. With a core of Toews, Kane and Sharp to show him the ropes, and with the possibility of being paired with Marian Hossa, the upside to Frolik is undeniable, yet risky as well. He remains a player that can hit 70 pts in his prime, but when is the question and as more time goes on, the less likely it will happen. A bold bet for the coming season: eclipsing the 50 pt barrier. But it will take effort and opportunity as a minimum.
RESIGNS
8. Blake Wheeler, Thrashers – the big winger originally drafted 5th overall by the Coyotes, Wheeler’s potential as a big power forward looked promising after a strong rookie performance with the Bruins in 2009, where he scored 45 pts. Since then, Wheeler did not deliver or improve in any way measurable, and even appeared soft for his size, considering his 6’5 frame. A late season deal to Atlanta changed the outlook however, as Wheeler stepped up his production alongside Andrew Ladd and Bryan Little and scored at a 60 pt pace in the final 20 games of the season. The big question is whether he can replicate this effort over a full season, and can he do it, potentially in Winnipeg? That remains to be seen, but the talent is there.
9. Mathieu Perreault, Capitals – much like in 2010, Perreault spent the majority of his time in Hershey with the Capitals’ AHL affiliate. Spending the majority of his call-ups with Brooks Laich and Alex Semin, he would often produce in his first two games after call-up and then fade away. Despite this, there remains a glaring hole at 2nd line center for the Caps, who have more than one role to fill in the offseason, and given Perreault’s cap hit, a potential full-time job with the big club could be in the cards for 2011-2012.
10. Mats Zuccarello, Rangers – Zuccarello was a mid-year recall by the Rangers, who had signed the young Norwegian Italian to a contract earlier in the year. After leading the SEL in scoring with Modo in 2010, the shifty forward looked like a potential star in the making, but questions about his 5’7 frame and how it would keep up with the rigors of physicality in the NHL remained. Despite this, Mats performed at a 45 pt pace alongside Stepan and Wolski, and will likely line up on the 2nd or 3rd line for the RANGERS (that’s right Roger… another one you missed out on). As Martin St. Louis has shown, small players can have an impact in the NHL, but only time will tell.
11. Nikita Filatov, Blue Jackets – the only reason Filatov should be considered in this analysis is because of his talent. He has the upside to be the next great Russian scorer. But given the team he is on and their sore lacking in various aspects of coaching, offensive setup and style of play, it is of no question that Filatov needs a change of scenery. If were to bet let loose in an offensive system, the sky is the limit, otherwise, he may become another bust from the 1st round of 2008, but it is still too soon to tell.
12. Joe Colborne, Maple Leafs – Acquired in the trade that sent Tomas Kaberle to the Bruins, Colborne, a highly-regarded prospect with the Bruins, has made his way to most dangerous hockey market in the world: Toronto. Fitting the bill of Brian Burke, the 6’5 center has put on some muscle since his 170 lb days, and is now topping out at 210 lbs, and has the upside to become a poor man’s version of Joe Thornton. The drive is still a question, but the size and talent are a perfect fit for the void top line center role the Leafs so dearly need to fill. He is however, a more long-term fit, and how long, of course, will be up to him.
13. Scott Glennie, Stars – Glennie was drafted 8th overall in the 2009 entry draft and tore up the WHL alongside Brayden Schenn for a good period of time. Now having dominated junior at a point-per-game level for 4 seasons, he is moving onto the AHL and will likely fit into a top six role for the Stars in a few years. He has very good upside, size and strength and will likely feature as a prominent member of the youth movement there alongside Jamie Benn and Loui Eriksson.
DEFENSE
KEEPERS
1. Mike Green, Capitals – Green remains likely the only defenseman in the NHL at this time who is capable of a point-per-game production over an entire season. His shortened 2011 season was a result of bad luck, and concussion issues that did not get resolved. Time will tell if the Capitals retain their prized back end power play performer, but his two 70 pt seasons don’t lie – Green should be considered among the best, and is capable of 70-80 pts.
2. Alex Goligoski, Stars – Goligoski is only beginning to enter his prime now at the age of 25, and has just beaten the 40 pt barrier as a top offensive defenseman option. While his ceiling has now taken a hit because of his move to Dallas, it’s safe to say he will now be relied upon to produce on their power play, which shows excellent promise in the coming year. Goligoski produced at a 53 pt pace in his 23 games with Dallas, and finished the season with a total of 46 pts overall, so an expectation of 45-55 pts in the coming year is good, but there is upside for more as well.
3. Anton Babchuk, Flames – Babchuk returned from a second stint in Omsk to deliver for the Carolina Hurricanes and Calgary Flames in another 35 pt season. The big blueliner has a howitzer shot and can be relied upon to carry a powerplay, but it remains to be seen where he will sign for the coming season. Expect 30-40 pts, with potential for more if he does sign with an offensively-driven team other than the Flames.
RESIGNS
4. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Coyotes – OEL has impressed at every international level for his smart and responsible play from the back end. He has good size and is improving his strength over time, and is slated to become part of the Coyotes top pairing in no time. Alongside Keith Yandle, the duo will prove to be a force to deal with in the future. Some have compared him to a less dynamic version of Lidstrom, but time will tell if Ekman-Larsson can be anywhere close to the future hall of famer’s caliber.
5. Jonathon Blum, Predators – yet another product of the Nashville Predator defenseman production machine, Blum is a former 1st round pick with excellent talent and a nose for the offensive side. He impressed the Predators so much in his late season call-up (8 pts in 23 games) that the defenseman was already depended upon for top four defensive minutes in the playoffs. Blum has a bright future but will he step up above the current top-pairing of Weber-Suter to produce at the level he is capable of?
GOALTENDERS
KEEPER
1. Henrik Lundqvist, Rangers – King Henrik is simply the best. If not for the sub-par team he is currently backstopping, Lundqvist would be leading the NHL in wins, shutouts, save pct and GAA, year in, year out. Once drafted 205th overall by the RANGERS (and once protected by a SFHL GM who obviously couldn’t spell his name and referred to him as RANGERS), Lundy came in at a steal for the blue shirts (sorry Roger, I’m not saying RANGERS anymore) and hasn’t looked back since. Six consecutive 30 win seasons. An astounding 35 NHL shutouts in that span. He is a goaltending machine and depending on the number of shots he faces, can propel a team into the playoffs on his own. When facing less than 2000 shots in a season, Lundqvist has delivered 10 shutout seasons twice. Assuming the Rangers continue to pad their blue line with talent, only more of the same can be expected from this goaltender in the prime of his career. Expect 35-40 wins (with potential for more if the Rangers climb out of the semi-good category), 7-10 shutouts per season. Oh, and he plays for the RANGERS. RANGERS. RANGERS. RANGERS (for further reference, see the entry draft lottery video and repeat accordingly. Then try not to laugh).
RESIGNS
2. Tuukka Rask, Bruins – Rask looked to become the next big thing in Boston after a sensational rookie season, having relieved an injured Tim Thomas en route to an impressive 22 win, 5 shutout season in 45 games. All that aside, Thomas became a force once more in 2010-2011, and Rask would go on to play only 29 games, putting up less impressive numbers but playing the role of an excellent backup in the process. There’s no denying he is the future of the Bruins goaltending spot, but it remains to be seen who will get the majority of playing time in the coming year. Rask is a superior talent and should not be overlooked.
3. Jacob Markstrom, Panthers – Markstrom has been heralded as the next great Swedish goaltender by talent scouts, and has the size, speed, pedigree and talent to become this very goalie in years to come. With Tomas Vokoun now set to test free agency, there is a possibility that Markstrom becomes the Panthers starter as soon as 2011-2012, but many experts claim the young goalie is not yet ready for the rigors of the NHL, despite his upside. As goalies tend to be the slowest to attain performance maturity, timing will be crucial, but Markstrom will be an NHL goalie with superior talent, without a doubt.